Northern DistrictsversusAuckland

30 Jan 2026 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Auckland won by 8 wickets

Northern Districts19.5 overs138/10 Auckland19.4 overs139/2 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 48%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 1% to 53% during the match (Auckland: 47% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: MM Penfold to E Wolland, E Wolland out. Auckland up from 48% to 58%.
10.4: ML Green to MBA Lamplough, MBA Lamplough out. Auckland up from 54% to 65%.
2nd inns 2.1: MW Downes to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. Northern Districts up from 40% to 52%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts138/10 Auckland139/2

Innings 1