BangladeshversusWest Indies

19 Dec 2024 · T20

Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 80 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs189/7 West Indies16.4 overs109/10 Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%Bangladesh50%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than West Indies (1,603 vs 1,564 on our results rating)
West Indies are playing at home in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 51%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

5.6: AS Joseph to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. West Indies up from 30% to 37%.
7.4: G Motie to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. West Indies up from 33% to 40%.
17.1: OC McCoy to Jaker Ali, four by Jaker Ali. Bangladesh up from 67% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh189/7 West Indies109/10

Innings 1

Bangladesh

189/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Litton Dascaught · Brandon King · Romario Shepherd 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brandon King · b Romario Shepherd	14	13	3	0	107.69
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Justin Greaves · Alzarri Joseph 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Justin Greaves · b Alzarri Joseph	39	21	4	2	185.71
Tanzid Hasancaught · Nicolas Pooran · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Gudakesh Motie	9	9	0	1	100.00
Mehedi Hasancaught · Justin Greaves · Roston Chase 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Justin Greaves · b Roston Chase	29	23	3	0	126.09

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jayden Seales0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	0	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0	1
Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	59	1	14.75	0	1
Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	0	0
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	1	10.00	2	0
Obed McCoy0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	35	0	11.67	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	10	16/0
3	12	28/0
4	12	40/0
5	4	44/1
6	10	54/2
7	5	59/2
8	7	66/3
9	4	70/3
10	6	76/3
11	13	89/3
12	9	98/3
13	4	102/4
14	10	112/4
15	2	114/6
16	12	126/6
17	10	136/6
18	20	156/6
19	8	164/7
20	25	189/7

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