NorthamptonshireversusDurham

6 Jun 2026 · T20

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 7 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs145/9 Durham20.0 overs138/8 Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 53%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Durham is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 12% to 95% during the match (Durham: 5% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.3: NA McSweeney to CN Ackermann, CN Ackermann out. Northamptonshire up from 25% to 52%.
2nd inns 13.3: CG Harrison to Kasey Aldridge, Kasey Aldridge out. Northamptonshire up from 44% to 70%.
2nd inns 16.6: JJG Sales to BA Raine, BA Raine out. Northamptonshire up from 56% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire145/9 Durham138/8

Innings 1