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Asian Cricket Council Men's Challenger Cup · 2023/24 · Men
7 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Maldives started on 27%; Maldives batted first.
Maldives's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azyan Farhathcaught · Manoj Adhikari · Thinley Jamtsho 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Manoj Adhikari · b Thinley Jamtsho | 43 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 95.56 |
| Umar Adamcaught · Ngawang Thinley · T Wangchuk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ngawang Thinley · b T Wangchuk | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| KTK Rodrigobowled · T Wangchuk 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b T Wangchuk | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Hassan Rasheedcaught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · Ngawang Thinley 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · b Ngawang Thinley | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Azzamstumped · Manoj Adhikari · Namgay Thinley 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Manoj Adhikari · b Namgay Thinley | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
| Shaof Hassanrun out · T Wangchuk · Namgay Thinley 1 fours · 3 sixes | run out · T Wangchuk | 34 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 212.50 |
|---|
| Ismail Alicaught · T Wangchuk · Sonam Yeshey 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Wangchuk · b Sonam Yeshey | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Hassanrun out · T Wangchuk · T Wangchuk 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · T Wangchuk | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Rizannot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
|---|
| Nazwan Ismailnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T Wangchuk1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 6 | 0 |
| Namgay Thinley0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Ngawang Thinley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-13 (Umar Adam, 2.2) · 2-13 (KTK Rodrigo, 2.5) · 3-18 (Hassan Rasheed, 4.4) · 4-39 (Mohamed Azzam, 8.4) · 5-81 (Shaof Hassan, 13.1) · 6-101 (Azyan Farhath, 16.5) · 7-113 (Ismail Ali, 18.0) · 8-135 (Ibrahim Hassan, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 13/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/3 |
| 6 | 11 | 30/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 33/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 38/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 41/4 |
| 10 | 11 | 52/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 58/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 67/4 |
| 13 | 14 | 81/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 84/5 |
| 15 | 8 | 92/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 97/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 102/6 |
| 18 | 11 | 113/7 |
| 19 | 14 | 127/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 137/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.