CroatiaversusSpain

3 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Spain won by 8 wickets

Croatia11.5 overs47/10 Spain8.1 overs51/2 Mladost Cricket Ground, Zagreb ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Spain more likely to win

17%Croatia83%Spain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Spain rate stronger than Croatia (1,580 vs 1,310 on our results rating)
Croatia are playing at home in Croatia
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Spain won 1 and Croatia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Croatia started on 15%; Croatia batted first.

Croatia’s chance of winning (%) · Spain is the rest

Croatia's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (Spain: 82% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: Raja Adeel to A Shukla, A Shukla out. Spain up from 82% to 88%.
3.4: Raja Adeel to V Rathinasamy, four by V Rathinasamy. Croatia up from 10% to 14%.
4.6: Atif Mehmood to V Rathinasamy, V Rathinasamy out. Spain up from 86% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Croatia47/10 Spain51/2

Innings 1

Croatia

47/1011.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Croatia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Arpit Shuklalbw · Raja Adeel 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Raja Adeel	1	3	0	0	33.33
V Rathinasamycaught · D Doyle-Calle · Atif Mehmood 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · D Doyle-Calle · b Atif Mehmood	13	21	1	1	61.90
V Pulibantilbw · LA Burns 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b LA Burns	4	15	1	0	26.67
S Houghtoncaught · LA Burns · C Rumistrzewicz 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LA Burns · b C Rumistrzewicz	1	2	0	0	50.00
Saghar Manzoorcaught · Mohammad Ihsan · C Rumistrzewicz 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Ihsan · b C Rumistrzewicz	2	4	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Atif Mehmood1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	10	1	3.33	2
Raja Adeel1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	13	1	6.50	7
Yasir Ali1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	1	0	0	0.00	0
LA Burns1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	8	3	2.67	2
C Rumistrzewicz1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	1	7	5	2.47	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	1	9/1
3	0	9/1
4	13	22/1
5	6	28/2
6	4	32/2
7	6	38/3
8	7	45/5
9	2	47/6
10	0	47/7
11	0	47/8
12	0	47/10

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