Islamabad UnitedversusKarachi Kings

19 May 2025 · T20

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Islamabad United won by 79 runs

Islamabad United20.0 overs251/5 Karachi Kings18.2 overs172/10 Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Islamabad United started on 51%; Islamabad United batted first.

Islamabad United’s chance of winning (%) · Karachi Kings is the rest

Islamabad United's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Karachi Kings: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Mir Hamza to Sahibzada Farhan, four by Sahibzada Farhan. Islamabad United up from 51% to 55%.
1.4: Khushdil Shah to AD Hales, six by AD Hales. Islamabad United up from 61% to 66%.
2nd inns 5.2: Salman Irshad to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Islamabad United up from 84% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Islamabad United251/5 Karachi Kings172/10

Innings 1