EnglandversusIndia

30 May 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 26 runs

England20.0 overs168/5 India20.0 overs142/9 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

55%England45%India

Why

England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,649 vs 1,649 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 54%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

England's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.6: LK Bell to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. England up from 58% to 69%.
2nd inns 8.6: FG Kemp to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. England up from 53% to 65%.
2nd inns 14.3: LK Bell to H Kaur, six by H Kaur. India up from 26% to 36%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England168/5 India142/9

Innings 1

England

168/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sophia Dunkleycaught · Richa Ghosh · Nandani Sharma 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Richa Ghosh · b Nandani Sharma	10	14	0	1	71.43
Danielle Wyattcaught · Smriti Mandhana · Shree Charani 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Shree Charani	29	25	3	0	116.00
Amy Jonescaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Shree Charani 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Shree Charani	28	22	3	0	127.27
Alice Capsey

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	2
Nandani Sharma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	2
Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	0
Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	3	6.25	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	4	6/0
3	8	14/0
4	7	21/0
5	7	28/1
6	7	35/1
7	12	47/1
8	9	56/1
9	6	62/2
10	9	71/2
11	4	75/2
12	9	84/2
13	4	88/3
14	12	100/3
15	10	110/3
16	5	115/3
17	8	123/4
18	6	129/5
19	15	144/5
20	24	168/5

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