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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
9 May 2026 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Indonesia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Indonesia started on 54%; Indonesia batted first.
Indonesia's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (Samoa: 43% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gede Priandanalbw · SM Nash 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b SM Nash | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Sudhakar Jegannathancaught · BF Mailata · SM Nash 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · BF Mailata · b SM Nash | 11 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 68.75 |
| Kavin Chaddhacaught · S Sola · DE Burgess 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Sola · b DE Burgess | 25 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 75.76 |
| Gaurav Tiwaribowled · S Sola 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Sola | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Kadek Gamantikabowled · S Sola 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Sola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Yudha Verdian |
| bowled · b S Sola |
| 8 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 53.33 |
| Dharma Kesumabowled · SF Tiai 0 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b SF Tiai | 21 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 123.53 |
|---|
| Danilson Hawoenot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 11* | 10 | 0 | 1 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Gede Artabowled · SM Nash 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b SM Nash | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Anjar Tadarusnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CK Jasmat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| SM Nash2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Visser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Sola1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| SF Tiai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| DE Burgess0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Gede Priandana, 1.5) · 2-20 (Sudhakar Jegannathan, 6.0) · 3-24 (Gaurav Tiwari, 7.1) · 4-24 (Kadek Gamantika, 7.2) · 5-40 (Yudha Verdian, 11.3) · 6-65 (Kavin Chaddha, 15.1) · 7-73 (Dharma Kesuma, 16.3) · 8-74 (Gede Arta, 17.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 24/4 |
| 9 | 7 | 31/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 32/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 39/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 42/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 47/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 53/5 |
| 15 | 12 | 65/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 67/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 74/7 |
| 18 | 0 | 74/8 |
| 19 | 10 | 84/8 |
| 20 | 8 | 92/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.