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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2026 · Men
22 Sept 2026 · ODI
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 61%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Bantonbowled · Asitha Fernando 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
 Ben Duckettlbw · Dunith Wellalage5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dunith Wellalage | 32 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 110.34 |
 Joe Rootbowled · Sachindu Colombage5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachindu Colombage | 44 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 84.62 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Dilshan Madushanka · Dushmantha Chameera7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dilshan Madushanka · b Dushmantha Chameera | 67 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
England's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 97.10 |
 Jos Buttlerlbw · Sachindu Colombage2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sachindu Colombage | 31 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 93.94 |
|---|
 Will Jacksnot out5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 46* | 47 | 5 | 0 | 97.87 |
|---|
 Rehan Ahmedrun out · Charith Asalanka · Dilshan Madushanka0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Charith Asalanka | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtonbowled · Sachindu Colombage1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachindu Colombage | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonbowled · Dilshan Madushanka 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dilshan Madushanka | 14 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archerbowled · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguebowled · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 53 | 3 | 5.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 4.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 61 | 1 | 6.78 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sachindu Colombage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 3 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (Tom Banton, 2.5) · 2-67 (Ben Duckett, 10.5) · 3-135 (Joe Root, 22.3) · 4-182 (Harry Brook, 31.1) · 5-196 (Jos Buttler, 34.3) · 6-199 (Rehan Ahmed, 35.5) · 7-211 (Jamie Overton, 38.5) · 8-241 (Gus Atkinson, 45.2) · 9-247 (Jofra Archer, 47.0) · 10-265 (Josh Tongue, 48.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 36/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 51/1 |
| 10 | 13 | 64/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 68/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 72/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 80/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 82/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 90/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 105/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 113/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 119/2 |
| 21 | 10 | 129/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 133/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 136/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 139/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 147/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 154/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 160/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 164/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 172/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 175/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 182/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 183/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 185/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 193/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 196/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 199/6 |
| 37 | 4 | 203/6 |
| 38 | 7 | 210/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 211/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 214/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 217/7 |
| 42 | 4 | 221/7 |
| 43 | 4 | 225/7 |
| 44 | 8 | 233/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 241/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 244/8 |
| 47 | 3 | 247/9 |
| 48 | 18 | 265/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 265/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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