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Photo: NZDF
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
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South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
15 Mar 2026 · T20
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 53%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (South Africa: 46% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaycaught · Tony de Zorzi · Gerald Coetzee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony de Zorzi · b Gerald Coetzee | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Tom Lathamlbw · Gerald Coetzee1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gerald Coetzee | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Tim Robinsoncaught · George Linde · Ottniel Baartman 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Linde · b Ottniel Baartman | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Nick Kellybowled · Ottniel Baartman 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ottniel Baartman | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Bevon Jacobsrun out · Rubin Hermann · Ottniel Baartman 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out |
| 10 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 142.86 |
| Mitchell Santnerbowled · Keshav Maharaj 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 15 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 78.95 |
|---|
| James Neeshamcaught · Connor Esterhuizen · N Mokoena 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Connor Esterhuizen · b N Mokoena | 26 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 123.81 |
|---|
| Cole McConchiecaught · Rubin Hermann · N Mokoena 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rubin Hermann · b N Mokoena | 15 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 136.36 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkescaught · Connor Esterhuizen · N Mokoena 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Connor Esterhuizen · b N Mokoena | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonbowled · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Ben Searsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4.67 | 2 | 0 |
| N Mokoena0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 7.43 | 2 | 0 |
| Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 7.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Dian Forrester0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Devon Conway, 1.0) · 2-14 (Tom Latham, 2.1) · 3-20 (Tim Robinson, 3.2) · 4-21 (Nick Kelly, 3.4) · 5-36 (Bevon Jacobs, 5.5) · 6-54 (Mitchell Santner, 9.2) · 7-80 (James Neesham, 12.1) · 8-83 (Zakary Foulkes, 13.0) · 9-86 (Kyle Jamieson, 14.0) · 10-91 (Cole McConchie, 14.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 11 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 21/4 |
| 5 | 7 | 28/4 |
| 6 | 8 | 36/5 |
| 7 | 7 | 43/5 |
| 8 | 6 | 49/5 |
| 9 | 4 | 53/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 56/6 |
| 11 | 11 | 67/6 |
| 12 | 13 | 80/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 83/8 |
| 14 | 3 | 86/9 |
| 15 | 5 | 91/10 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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