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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
28 Nov 2024 · Test
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Ollie Pope · Brydon Carse6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Brydon Carse | 47 | 54 | 6 | 0 | 87.04 |
| Devon Conwaycaught and bowled · Gus Atkinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Zak Crawley · Gus Atkinson10 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Crawley · b Gus Atkinson | 93 | 197 | 10 | 0 | 47.21 |
 |
| caught · Zak Crawley · b Shoaib Bashir |
| 34 |
| 49 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 69.39 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Harry Brook · Brydon Carse 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Brydon Carse | 19 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 40.43 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Gus Atkinson · Shoaib Bashir2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gus Atkinson · b Shoaib Bashir | 17 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 53.13 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsnot out 6 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 58* | 87 | 6 | 1 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Joe Root · Shoaib Bashir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Shoaib Bashir | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Ben Duckett · Shoaib Bashir2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Shoaib Bashir | 18 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 56.25 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Gus Atkinson · Brydon Carse2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gus Atkinson · b Brydon Carse | 15 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkebowled · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brydon Carse | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 12 · wides: 11 · noballs: 11 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Woakes5 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 3.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Gus Atkinson2 maidens · 0 wides · 7 no-balls | 18.0 | 2 | 61 | 2 | 3.39 | 0 | 7 |
 Brydon Carse1 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls | 19.0 | 1 | 64 | 4 | 3.37 | 3 | 2 |
 Ben Stokes1 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 13.0 | 1 | 59 | 0 | 4.54 | 6 | 1 |
| Shoaib Bashir1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 1 | 69 | 4 | 3.45 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Devon Conway, 2.0) · 2-62 (Tom Latham, 14.0) · 3-130 (Rachin Ravindra, 31.3) · 4-199 (Daryl Mitchell, 52.4) · 5-227 (Kane Williamson, 60.2) · 6-246 (Tom Blundell, 66.0) · 7-252 (Nathan Smith, 69.3) · 8-298 (Matt Henry, 78.5) · 9-325 (Tim Southee, 84.1) · 10-348 (William O’Rourke, 91.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 25/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 43/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 50/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 58/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 62/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 68/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 71/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 71/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 72/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 20 | 9 | 83/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 90/2 |
| 22 | 10 | 100/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 103/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 104/2 |
| 25 | 8 | 112/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 114/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 119/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 120/2 |
| 29 | 0 | 120/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 122/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 130/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 131/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 134/3 |
| 34 | 12 | 146/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 148/3 |
| 36 | 0 | 148/3 |
| 37 | 1 | 149/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 153/3 |
| 39 | 0 | 153/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 157/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 161/3 |
| 42 | 2 | 163/3 |
| 43 | 3 | 166/3 |
| 44 | 4 | 170/3 |
| 45 | 1 | 171/3 |
| 46 | 1 | 172/3 |
| 47 | 10 | 182/3 |
| 48 | 2 | 184/3 |
| 49 | 1 | 185/3 |
| 50 | 5 | 190/3 |
| 51 | 3 | 193/3 |
| 52 | 4 | 197/3 |
| 53 | 2 | 199/4 |
| 54 | 8 | 207/4 |
| 55 | 4 | 211/4 |
| 56 | 4 | 215/4 |
| 57 | 1 | 216/4 |
| 58 | 1 | 217/4 |
| 59 | 9 | 226/4 |
| 60 | 1 | 227/4 |
| 61 | 1 | 228/5 |
| 62 | 2 | 230/5 |
| 63 | 6 | 236/5 |
| 64 | 4 | 240/5 |
| 65 | 5 | 245/5 |
| 66 | 1 | 246/6 |
| 67 | 1 | 247/6 |
| 68 | 4 | 251/6 |
| 69 | 1 | 252/6 |
| 70 | 1 | 253/7 |
| 71 | 2 | 255/7 |
| 72 | 6 | 261/7 |
| 73 | 6 | 267/7 |
| 74 | 11 | 278/7 |
| 75 | 5 | 283/7 |
| 76 | 5 | 288/7 |
| 77 | 8 | 296/7 |
| 78 | 1 | 297/7 |
| 79 | 2 | 299/8 |
| 80 | 13 | 312/8 |
| 81 | 5 | 317/8 |
| 82 | 1 | 318/8 |
| 83 | 1 | 319/8 |
| 84 | 6 | 325/8 |
| 85 | 0 | 325/9 |
| 86 | 1 | 326/9 |
| 87 | 1 | 327/9 |
| 88 | 5 | 332/9 |
| 89 | 3 | 335/9 |
| 90 | 6 | 341/9 |
| 91 | 7 | 348/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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