Royal Challengers BengaluruversusChennai Super Kings

3 May 2025 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 2 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs213/5 Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs211/5 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 61%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Chennai Super Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 20% to 91% during the match (Chennai Super Kings: 9% to 80%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: B Kumar to MS Dhoni, six by MS Dhoni. Chennai Super Kings up from 25% to 45%.
2nd inns 19.4: Yash Dayal to S Dube, 1 run to S Dube. Chennai Super Kings up from 9% to 54%.
2nd inns 19.6: Yash Dayal to S Dube, 1 run to S Dube. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 56% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru213/5 Chennai Super Kings211/5

Innings 1