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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
25 Feb 2026 · T20
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 59%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Seifertcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dushmantha Chameera | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
| Finn Allencaught and bowled · Mahesh Theekshana 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 23 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 176.92 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Dushan Hemantha · Mahesh Theekshana3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dushan Hemantha · b Mahesh Theekshana | 32 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 145.45 |
| Glenn Phillipsbowled · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 18 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellbowled · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Dunith Wellalage |
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 42.86 |
| Mark Chapmanbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Charith Asalanka · Dushmantha Chameera 2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Charith Asalanka · b Dushmantha Chameera | 47 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 180.77 |
|---|
| Cole McConchienot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 31* | 23 | 3 | 2 | 134.78 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushan Hemantha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Finn Allen, 3.1) · 2-34 (Tim Seifert, 4.2) · 3-75 (Glenn Phillips, 9.3) · 4-84 (Rachin Ravindra, 11.2) · 5-84 (Mark Chapman, 11.4) · 6-84 (Daryl Mitchell, 12.1) · 7-168 (Mitchell Santner, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 15 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 44/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 52/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 59/2 |
| 9 | 14 | 73/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 83/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 84/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 86/6 |
| 14 | 2 | 88/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 90/6 |
| 16 | 8 | 98/6 |
| 17 | 18 | 116/6 |
| 18 | 21 | 137/6 |
| 19 | 19 | 156/6 |
| 20 | 12 | 168/7 |
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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