Chattogram ChallengersversusDurdanto Dhaka

17 Feb 2024 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chattogram Challengers won by 10 runs

Chattogram Challengers20.0 overs159/6 Durdanto Dhaka20.0 overs149/5 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chattogram Challengers started on 60%; Chattogram Challengers batted first.

Chattogram Challengers’s chance of winning (%) · Durdanto Dhaka is the rest

Chattogram Challengers's chances ranged from 42% to 98% during the match (Durdanto Dhaka: 2% to 58%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Mosaddek Hossain to Shykat Ali, Shykat Ali out. Durdanto Dhaka up from 39% to 55%.
2nd inns 2.5: Shuvagata Hom to AM Rossington, AM Rossington out. Chattogram Challengers up from 54% to 66%.
2nd inns 2.6: Shuvagata Hom to Sabbir Hossain, Sabbir Hossain out. Chattogram Challengers up from 66% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chattogram Challengers159/6 Durdanto Dhaka149/5

Innings 1