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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
11 Oct 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 76%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amy Jonesrun out · Kavisha Dilhari, Anushka Sanjeewani · Sugandika Kumari1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kavisha Dilhari, Anushka Sanjeewani | 11 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 84.62 |
 Tammy Beaumontcaught · Harshitha Madavi · Sugandika Kumari6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Sugandika Kumari | 32 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 110.34 |
 Heather Knightcaught · Dewmi Vihanga · Inoka Ranaweera2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewmi Vihanga · b Inoka Ranaweera | 29 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 61.70 |
 |
England's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Udeshika Prabodhani |
| 117 |
| 117 |
| 9 |
| 2 |
| 100.00 |
 Sophia Dunkleycaught and bowled · Kavisha Dilhari0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kavisha Dilhari | 18 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Emma Lambbowled · Inoka Ranaweera 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Inoka Ranaweera | 13 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Alice Capseystumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Inoka Ranaweera0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Inoka Ranaweera | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Charlie Deancaught · Dewmi Vihanga · Udeshika Prabodhani1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewmi Vihanga · b Udeshika Prabodhani | 19 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 52.78 |
|---|
 Sophie Ecclestonestumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Sugandika Kumari0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Sugandika Kumari | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Linsey Smithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Lauren Bellnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 6.11 | 0 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 66 | 2 | 6.60 | 2 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Dewmi Vihanga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Amy Jones, 3.4) · 2-49 (Tammy Beaumont, 9.3) · 3-109 (Heather Knight, 21.4) · 4-146 (Sophia Dunkley, 30.2) · 5-168 (Emma Lamb, 34.1) · 6-168 (Alice Capsey, 34.5) · 7-206 (Charlie Dean, 45.3) · 8-216 (Sophie Ecclestone, 46.4) · 9-252 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 38/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 45/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 50/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 52/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 57/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 63/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 82/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 86/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 94/2 |
| 20 | 9 | 103/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 110/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 117/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 118/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 125/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 127/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 132/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 137/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 141/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 145/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 147/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 150/4 |
| 33 | 10 | 160/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 168/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 168/6 |
| 36 | 1 | 169/6 |
| 37 | 3 | 172/6 |
| 38 | 2 | 174/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 176/6 |
| 40 | 3 | 179/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 184/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 189/6 |
| 43 | 6 | 195/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 199/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 204/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 209/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 218/8 |
| 48 | 7 | 225/8 |
| 49 | 14 | 239/8 |
| 50 | 14 | 253/9 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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