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New Zealand tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
17 Apr 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 73%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Nichollscaught · Litton Das · Rishad Hossain 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Rishad Hossain | 68 | 83 | 9 | 0 | 81.93 |
| Nick Kellybowled · Shariful Islam 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shariful Islam | 7 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 30.43 |
 Will Youngcaught · Tanzid Hasan · Rishad Hossain2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanzid Hasan · b Rishad Hossain | 30 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Tom Lathambowled · Mehedi Hasan2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mehedi Hasan | 14 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 93.33 |
 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 1% to 65%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Litton Das · b Shariful Islam |
| 14 |
| 30 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 46.67 |
| Dean Foxcroftbowled · Nahid Rana 8 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahid Rana | 59 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 101.72 |
|---|
| Josh Clarksonbowled · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taskin Ahmed | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 21* | 22 | 1 | 0 | 95.45 |
|---|
 Blair Ticknerbowled · Taskin Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taskin Ahmed | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Jayden Lennoxnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 4 | 1 |
 Shariful Islam2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 27 | 2 | 2.70 | 2 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Nahid Rana0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 1 | 6.50 | 3 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
1-21 (Nick Kelly, 6.3) · 2-94 (Will Young, 21.1) · 3-127 (Tom Latham, 26.3) · 4-131 (Henry Nicholls, 27.5) · 5-165 (Muhammad Abbas, 35.4) · 6-192 (Josh Clarkson, 41.2) · 7-226 (Dean Foxcroft, 46.4) · 8-240 (Blair Tickner, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 16/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 38/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 39/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 45/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 50/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 15 | 9 | 64/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 65/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 70/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 73/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 79/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 82/1 |
| 21 | 12 | 94/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 103/2 |
| 24 | 11 | 114/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 120/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 122/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 129/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 131/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 136/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 142/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 144/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 151/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 157/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 160/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 164/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 165/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 170/5 |
| 38 | 8 | 178/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 180/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 185/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 192/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 193/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 198/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 202/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 210/6 |
| 46 | 8 | 218/6 |
| 47 | 10 | 228/7 |
| 48 | 4 | 232/7 |
| 49 | 5 | 237/7 |
| 50 | 10 | 247/8 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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