IndiaversusBangladesh

24 Sept 2025 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 41 runs

India20.0 overs168/6 Bangladesh19.3 overs127/10 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

83%India17%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,792 vs 1,625 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 81%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 26%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.2: Kuldeep Yadav to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. India up from 74% to 83%.
2nd inns 10.4: CV Varun to Shamim Hossain, Shamim Hossain out. India up from 84% to 91%.
2nd inns 12.3: CV Varun to Saif Hassan, Jaker Ali out. India up from 88% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India168/6 Bangladesh127/10

Innings 1

India

168/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abhishek Sharmarun out · Rishad Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman · Mustafizur Rahman 6 fours · 5 sixes	run out · Rishad Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman	75	37	6	5	202.70
Shubman Gillcaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Rishad Hossain 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Rishad Hossain	29	19	2	1	152.63
Shivam Dubecaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Rishad Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Rishad Hossain	2	3	0	0	66.67
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Jaker Ali · Mustafizur Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1	1
Nasum Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	0	0
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	0	0
Mohammad Saifuddin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	1	12.33	0	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	2	9.00	1	0
Saif Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	0	3.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	7	10/0
3	7	17/0
4	21	38/0
5	17	55/0
6	17	72/0
7	9	81/1
8	2	83/1
9	8	91/2
10	5	96/2
11	16	112/2
12	2	114/4
13	10	124/4
14	3	127/4
15	5	132/5
16	3	135/5
17	6	141/5
18	14	155/5
19	9	164/5
20	4	168/6

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