IndiaversusSouth Africa

9 Dec 2025 · T20

Barabati Stadium, Cuttack · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 101 runs

India20.0 overs175/6 South Africa12.3 overs74/10 Barabati Stadium, Cuttack ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

89%India11%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,846 vs 1,551 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 89%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

India's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 34%).

Biggest swings

2.4: L Ngidi to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. South Africa up from 15% to 23%.
2nd inns 0.2: Arshdeep Singh to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. India up from 78% to 87%.
2nd inns 5.1: AR Patel to AK Markram, AK Markram out. India up from 80% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India175/6 South Africa74/10

Innings 1

India

175/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Marco Jansen · Lutho Sipamla 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Marco Jansen · b Lutho Sipamla	17	12	2	1	141.67
Shubman Gillcaught · Marco Jansen · Lungi Ngidi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Marco Jansen · b Lungi Ngidi	4	2	1	0	200.00
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Aiden Markram · Lungi Ngidi 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Aiden Markram · b Lungi Ngidi	12	11	1	1	109.09
Tilak Varmacaught · Marco Jansen · Lungi Ngidi 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Marco Jansen · b Lungi Ngidi

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	3	7.75	0
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	0
Lutho Sipamla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	0
Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	0	10.25	5
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	2
Donavon Ferreira0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	1	6.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	1	7/1
3	11	18/2
4	8	26/2
5	6	32/2
6	8	40/2
7	10	50/3
8	4	54/3
9	9	63/3
10	8	71/3
11	5	76/3
12	4	80/4
13	16	96/4
14	8	104/5
15	17	121/5
16	10	131/5
17	6	137/5
18	8	145/6
19	18	163/6
20	12	175/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.