BangladeshversusPakistan

1 Jun 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 7 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs196/6 Pakistan17.2 overs197/3 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

34%Bangladesh66%Pakistan

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,549 vs 1,526 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 32%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 72% during the match (Pakistan: 28% to 100%).

Biggest swings

11.1: Shadab Khan to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Pakistan up from 34% to 41%.
2nd inns 0.6: Mehedi Hasan Miraz to Sahibzada Farhan, Sahibzada Farhan out. Bangladesh up from 47% to 59%.
2nd inns 9.5: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to Saim Ayub, Saim Ayub out. Bangladesh up from 20% to 30%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh196/6 Pakistan197/3

Innings 1

Bangladesh

196/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught · Abrar Ahmed · Fahim Ashraf 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Abrar Ahmed · b Fahim Ashraf	42	32	3	3	131.25
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Mohammad Haris · Shadab Khan 7 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Mohammad Haris · b Shadab Khan	66	34	7	4	194.12
Litton Dasbowled · Hasan Ali 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Hasan Ali	22	18	1	1	122.22
Tawhid Hridoycaught · Saim Ayub · Abbas Afridi 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Saim Ayub · b Abbas Afridi	25	18	2	1	138.89

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	0	0
Hasan Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	1	1
Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	0	0
Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0	0
Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	2	0
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	27	0	13.50	0	0
Shadab Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	1	8.67	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	3	8/0
3	19	27/0
4	9	36/0
5	10	46/0
6	7	53/0
7	11	64/0
8	16	80/0
9	11	91/0
10	8	99/0
11	13	112/1
12	8	120/2
13	11	131/2
14	11	142/2
15	8	150/2
16	6	156/2
17	14	170/3
18	2	172/5
19	12	184/5
20	12	196/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.