Sunrisers HyderabadversusRoyal Challengers Bengaluru

15 Apr 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Hyderabad won by 25 runs

Sunrisers Hyderabad20.0 overs287/3 Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs262/7 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Hyderabad started on 45%; Sunrisers Hyderabad batted first.

Sunrisers Hyderabad’s chance of winning (%) · Royal Challengers Bengaluru is the rest

Sunrisers Hyderabad's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

1.3: RJW Topley to TM Head, six by TM Head. Sunrisers Hyderabad up from 52% to 58%.
4.2: LH Ferguson to TM Head, six by TM Head. Sunrisers Hyderabad up from 61% to 65%.
4.3: LH Ferguson to TM Head, six by TM Head. Sunrisers Hyderabad up from 65% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Hyderabad287/3 Royal Challengers Bengaluru262/7

Innings 1