**Adelaide Oval**
Photo: Trentino Priori
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Women's Ashes · 2024/25 · Women

AustraliaversusEngland

25 Jan 2025 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 72 runs

Australia20.0 overs162/5 England17.3 overs90/10 Adelaide Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

65%Australia35%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than England (1,787 vs 1,743 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and England won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 63%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 37%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: D Brown to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. Australia up from 72% to 80%.
2nd inns 2.2: A King to A Capsey, A Capsey out. Australia up from 79% to 86%.
2nd inns 6.1: G Wareham to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. Australia up from 88% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia162/5 England90/10

Innings 1

Australia

162/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Beth Mooneynot out 10 fours · 0 sixes	not out	94*	63	10	0	149.21
Georgia Vollcaught · Danielle Wyatt · Alice Capsey 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Danielle Wyatt · b Alice Capsey	23	21	2	0	109.52
Phoebe Litchfieldbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone	12	10	1	0	120.00
Ellyse Perrycaught · Freya Kemp · Charlie Dean1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0
Freya Kemp0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	2
Lauren Filer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	1
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	1
Alice Capsey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	1
Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	0	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	13	19/0
3	9	28/0
4	6	34/0
5	5	39/0
6	5	44/0
7	9	53/0
8	3	56/1
9	12	68/1
10	8	76/1
11	7	83/1
12	6	89/2
13	6	95/2
14	14	109/2
15	10	119/2
16	4	123/3
17	13	136/3
18	7	143/4
19	9	152/5
20	10	162/5

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