KuwaitversusMalaysia

22 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 5 wickets

Kuwait15.5 overs70/10 Malaysia15.2 overs71/5 Selangor Turf Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

42%Kuwait58%Malaysia

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 3 and Kuwait won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Kuwait rate stronger than Malaysia (1,527 vs 1,471 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kuwait started on 38%; Kuwait batted first.

Kuwait’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Kuwait's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Malaysia: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Rizwan Haider to CV Anto, CV Anto out. Malaysia up from 55% to 64%.
1.1: Pavandeep Singh to R Sandaruwan, R Sandaruwan out. Malaysia up from 64% to 73%.
9.2: Muhammad Amir to Nimish Lathief, Nimish Lathief out. Malaysia up from 80% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kuwait70/10 Malaysia71/5

Innings 1

Kuwait

70/1015.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kuwait batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Clinto Antocaught · Syed Aziz · Rizwan Haider 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Syed Aziz · b Rizwan Haider	8	5	0	1	160.00
Ravija Sandaruwancaught · Ahmed Faiz · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmed Faiz · b Pavandeep Singh	0	1	0	0	0.00
Adnan Idreescaught · Syed Aziz · Pavandeep Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Syed Aziz · b Pavandeep Singh	9	14	1	0	64.29
Meet Bhavsarcaught · Ahmed Aqeel · Muhammad Amir 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmed Aqeel · b Muhammad Amir	14	18	1	0	77.78
Mohomad Aslamcaught and bowled · Syed Aziz 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Syed Aziz	16	26	1	0	61.54

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Rizwan Haider0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	0
Pavandeep Singh1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	1	16	4	4.17	2
Syed Aziz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	1	4.00	2
Khizar Hayat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	0	3.75	0
Muhammad Amir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	3	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	0	8/2
3	2	10/2
4	7	17/2
5	5	22/2
6	7	29/3
7	5	34/3
8	4	38/4
9	3	41/4
10	3	44/5
11	2	46/6
12	9	55/7
13	6	61/7
14	4	65/7
15	3	68/8
16	2	70/10

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