ThailandversusSaudi Arabia

16 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 8 wickets

Thailand20.0 overs104/9 Saudi Arabia11.2 overs108/2 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

38%Thailand62%Saudi Arabia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Saudi Arabia rate stronger than Thailand (1,531 vs 1,449 on our results rating)
Thailand are playing at home in Thailand
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Saudi Arabia won 1 and Thailand won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 35%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Saudi Arabia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Saudi Arabia: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Atif-Ur-Rehman to S Desungnoen, S Desungnoen out. Saudi Arabia up from 62% to 71%.
5.6: Usman Khalid to AV Lazarus, AV Lazarus out. Saudi Arabia up from 60% to 68%.
9.2: Usman Khalid to Robert Raina, Robert Raina out. Saudi Arabia up from 68% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand104/9 Saudi Arabia108/2

Innings 1

Thailand

104/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Akshaykumar Yadavstumped · Manan Ali · Usman Khalid 6 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Manan Ali · b Usman Khalid	28	28	6	0	100.00
Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · Abdul Waheed · Atif-Ur-Rehman 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Abdul Waheed · b Atif-Ur-Rehman	0	2	0	0	0.00
S Desungnoenbowled · Atif-Ur-Rehman 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Atif-Ur-Rehman	0	1	0	0	0.00
Austin Lazaruscaught · Abdul Waheed · Usman Khalid 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Abdul Waheed · b Usman Khalid	14	14	1	1	100.00
N Nuntarachnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	19*	33	0	0	57.58

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ishtiaq Ahmad0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	2	2
Atif-Ur-Rehman0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	3	3.25	2	0
Zain Ul Abidin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	1	3.50	0	0
Usman Khalid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	4	7.00	1	0
Hisham Sheikh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	0	3.75	1	0
Usman Najeeb0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	12	1	6.00	2	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	2	16/2
3	5	21/2
4	7	28/2
5	6	34/2
6	11	45/3
7	1	46/3
8	5	51/4
9	8	59/4
10	10	69/6
11	5	74/7
12	3	77/7
13	7	84/7
14	3	87/7
15	2	89/8
16	1	90/8
17	2	92/8
18	2	94/9
19	7	101/9
20	3	104/9

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