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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
10 May 2026 · T20
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Fiji started on 26%; Fiji batted first.
Fiji's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (Japan: 73% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Acaweilbw · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| V Veiqravirun out · W Miyauchi, Ibrahim Takahashi · Abdul Samad (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · W Miyauchi, Ibrahim Takahashi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| SM Tupoucaught · W Miyauchi · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · W Miyauchi · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| J Baleicikoibiacaught · Abhishek Anand · Ibrahim Takahashi 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abhishek Anand · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 39 | 57 | 3 | 0 | 68.42 |
| Metuisela Beitakibowled · Ibrahim Takahashi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 42.86 |
| bowled · b Ibrahim Takahashi |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Peni Vuniwaqacaught · Abdul Samad (2) · M Taniyama 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdul Samad (2) · b M Taniyama | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| K Tayagabowled · M Taniyama 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Taniyama | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| P Dakainivanualbw · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Ravichandran | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| S Tabuisulurun out · R Sakurano-Thomas · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · R Sakurano-Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| VM Waqavakatoganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Samad (2)1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 |
| R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Esam Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| S Sugaya-Slater0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Abhishek Anand0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| M Taniyama0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 9.00 | 1 | 2 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (V Veiqravi, 0.1) · 2-2 (N Acawei, 1.5) · 3-3 (SM Tupou, 3.1) · 4-17 (Metuisela Beitaki, 7.2) · 5-17 (T Jikoibure, 7.3) · 6-25 (Peni Vuniwaqa, 10.0) · 7-36 (K Tayaga, 12.0) · 8-58 (P Dakainivanua, 15.4) · 9-64 (S Tabuisulu, 16.5) · 10-74 (J Baleicikoibia, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 3/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 7/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 9/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 11/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 16/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 18/5 |
| 9 | 1 | 19/5 |
| 10 | 6 | 25/6 |
| 11 | 1 | 26/6 |
| 12 | 10 | 36/7 |
| 13 | 3 | 39/7 |
| 14 | 11 | 50/7 |
| 15 | 5 | 55/7 |
| 16 | 4 | 59/8 |
| 17 | 5 | 64/9 |
| 18 | 3 | 67/9 |
| 19 | 5 | 72/9 |
| 20 | 2 | 74/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.