Hobart HurricanesversusPerth Scorchers

10 Nov 2024 · T20

Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 72 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs203/3 Perth Scorchers19.3 overs131/10 Sydney Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 45%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Perth Scorchers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

2.4: CC Ainsworth to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. Perth Scorchers up from 49% to 59%.
2.5: CC Ainsworth to NJ Carey, NJ Carey out. Perth Scorchers up from 59% to 69%.
6.1: SFM Devine to L Lee, four by L Lee. Hobart Hurricanes up from 47% to 55%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes203/3 Perth Scorchers131/10

Innings 1