UgandaversusKenya

21 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Uganda won by 28 runs

Uganda20.0 overs157/5 Kenya20.0 overs129/7 Entebbe Cricket Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

83%Uganda17%Kenya

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Kenya (1,719 vs 1,568 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 8 and Kenya won 2
Uganda are playing at home in Uganda

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 84%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 29%).

Biggest swings

1.4: P Koech to SG Mangela, SG Mangela out. Kenya up from 10% to 14%.
2.1: S Gill to R Lutaaya, R Lutaaya out. Kenya up from 14% to 19%.
2nd inns 1.3: F Nsubuga to DM Gondaria, DM Gondaria out. Uganda up from 84% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda157/5 Kenya129/7

Innings 1

Uganda

157/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Uganda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shrideep Mangelabowled · Peter Langat 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Peter Langat	17	8	2	0	212.50
R Lutaayabowled · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sachin Gill	0	3	0	0	0.00
Raghav Dhawancaught · Peter Langat · Francis Mutua 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Peter Langat · b Francis Mutua	41	39	1	1	105.13
Robinson Obuyacaught · Rakep Patel · Shem Ngoche 0 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Rakep Patel · b Shem Ngoche	40	48	0	3	83.33
Dinesh Nakraninot out 1 fours · 1 sixes	not out	24*	14	1	1	171.43
Juma Miyagi

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sachin Gill1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	25	1	6.25	0	0
Peter Langat0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	25	2	8.33	3	1
Vraj Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	0	6.00	0	0
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	37	1	9.25	0	0
Rakep Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0	0
Dhiren Gondaria0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	2	0	2.00	0	0
Francis Mutua0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	30	1	10.00	3	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	15	22/1
3	2	24/2
4	3	27/2
5	3	30/2
6	2	32/2
7	2	34/2
8	9	43/2
9	12	55/2
10	8	63/2
11	4	67/2
12	9	76/2
13	9	85/2
14	4	89/2
15	9	98/2
16	14	112/3
17	9	121/4
18	16	137/4
19	13	150/4
20	7	157/5

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