BhutanversusMaldives

23 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Maldives won by 7 wickets

Bhutan20.0 overs122/8 Maldives18.1 overs123/3 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bhutan more likely to win

70%Bhutan30%Maldives

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Maldives (1,388 vs 1,302 on our results rating)
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Bhutan won 4 and Maldives won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 69%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Maldives is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 0% to 80% during the match (Maldives: 20% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.5: S Yeshi to Umar Adam, Umar Adam out. Bhutan up from 28% to 38%.
2nd inns 4.4: Karma Dorji to Ismail Ali, six by Ismail Ali. Maldives up from 62% to 69%.
2nd inns 5.6: S Yeshi to Ismail Ali, six by Ismail Ali. Maldives up from 77% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan122/8 Maldives123/3

Innings 1

Bhutan

122/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Pradhanbowled · Azyan Farhath 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Azyan Farhath	21	21	3	0	100.00
Tenjin Rabgeycaught · Ibrahim Rizan · Ibrahim Nashath 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ibrahim Rizan · b Ibrahim Nashath	23	21	4	0	109.52
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjicaught · Ibrahim Nashath · Ibrahim Rizan 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ibrahim Nashath · b Ibrahim Rizan	40	33	4	1	121.21
J Singyecaught · Ibrahim Hassan · Umar Adam 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ibrahim Hassan · b Umar Adam	22	28	0	1	78.57
Thinley Jamtshocaught · Ibrahim Hassan · Ibrahim Rizan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ibrahim Hassan · b Ibrahim Rizan	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Umar Adam0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	30	1	10.00	2
Ibrahim Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	0	7.33	0
Ibrahim Nashath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	2	5.75	0
Azyan Farhath1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	1	4.25	0
Ibrahim Rizan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	9	3	2.25	0
Shunan Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	21	0	10.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	6	14/0
3	12	26/0
4	4	30/0
5	2	32/0
6	12	44/0
7	3	47/1
8	9	56/2
9	3	59/2
10	5	64/2
11	4	68/2
12	3	71/2
13	9	80/2
14	0	80/2
15	12	92/2
16	6	98/2
17	0	98/4
18	10	108/5
19	2	110/7
20	12	122/8

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