BangladeshversusZimbabwe

12 May 2024 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 8 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs157/6 Zimbabwe18.3 overs158/2 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

77%Bangladesh23%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,632 vs 1,515 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 75%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 80% during the match (Zimbabwe: 20% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.1: BJ Bennett to Towhid Hridoy, Towhid Hridoy out. Zimbabwe up from 47% to 58%.
2nd inns 4.1: Shakib Al Hasan to T Marumani, T Marumani out. Bangladesh up from 43% to 56%.
2nd inns 15.1: Mohammad Saifuddin to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. Bangladesh up from 22% to 34%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh157/6 Zimbabwe158/2

Innings 1

Bangladesh

157/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught · Wellington Masakadza · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Blessing Muzarabani	2	5	0	0	40.00
Soumya Sarkarcaught · Sean Williams · Brian Bennett 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sean Williams · b Brian Bennett	7	7	0	1	100.00
Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Ryan Burl · Wellington Masakadza 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ryan Burl · b Wellington Masakadza	36	28	5	1	128.57
Tawhid Hridoycaught · Clive Madande · Brian Bennett 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	0	6.50	0	0
Blessing Muzarabani1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	2	5.50	1	0
Brian Bennett1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	20	2	6.67	0	0
Faraz Akram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	20	0	10.00	1	0
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	23	1	11.50	0	0
Luke Jongwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	0	33	1	8.25	1	2
Sean Williams0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	0	9/1
3	0	9/2
4	6	15/2
5	12	27/3
6	6	33/3
7	8	41/3
8	14	55/3
9	4	59/3
10	11	70/3
11	3	73/3
12	12	85/4
13	8	93/4
14	7	100/4
15	5	105/4
16	12	117/4
17	7	124/5
18	4	128/6
19	16	144/6
20	13	157/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.