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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia Women tour of West Indies · 2025/26 · Women
27 Mar 2026 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 90%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Deandra Dottin · Hayley Matthews9 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Deandra Dottin · b Hayley Matthews | 77 | 72 | 9 | 2 | 106.94 |
 Georgia Vollcaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Afy Fletcher7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Afy Fletcher | 42 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 131.25 |
 Ellyse Perrycaught · Hayley Matthews · Karishma Ramharack0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Karishma Ramharack | 44 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 95.65 |
 |
Australia's chances ranged from 90% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 10%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Stafanie Taylor |
| 47 |
| 66 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 71.21 |
 Ashleigh Gardnercaught · Hayley Matthews · Afy Fletcher1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Afy Fletcher | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 70.59 |
|---|
 Nicola Careybowled · Afy Fletcher5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Afy Fletcher | 49 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 125.64 |
|---|
 Georgia Warehamcaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Deandra Dottin5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Deandra Dottin | 42 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Alana Kingrun out · Deandra Dottin · Deandra Dottin0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Deandra Dottin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Tahlia Wilsonnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
 Kim Garthcaught · Stafanie Taylor · Deandra Dottin0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Stafanie Taylor · b Deandra Dottin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Darcie Browncaught · Jannillea Glasgow · Stafanie Taylor0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jannillea Glasgow · b Stafanie Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 7.71 | 7 | 1 |
 Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 83 | 3 | 8.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Stafanie Taylor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.5 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 6.41 | 1 | 0 |
| Jahzara Claxton0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-75 (Georgia Voll, 10.3) · 2-166 (Ellyse Perry, 24.0) · 3-170 (Phoebe Litchfield, 26.3) · 4-186 (Ashleigh Gardner, 30.1) · 5-277 (Nicola Carey, 44.1) · 6-314 (Sophie Molineux, 47.2) · 7-326 (Alana King, 48.2) · 8-334 (Georgia Wareham, 48.5) · 9-334 (Kim Garth, 49.0) · 10-341 (Darcie Brown, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 31/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 32/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 38/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 45/0 |
| 9 | 13 | 58/0 |
| 10 | 12 | 70/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 78/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 78/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 92/1 |
| 14 | 9 | 101/1 |
| 15 | 10 | 111/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 118/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 122/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 125/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 127/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 135/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 139/1 |
| 22 | 10 | 149/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 155/1 |
| 24 | 11 | 166/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 169/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 170/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 170/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 174/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 181/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 186/3 |
| 31 | 9 | 195/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 201/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 204/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 207/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 209/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 211/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 214/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 220/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 223/4 |
| 40 | 11 | 234/4 |
| 41 | 12 | 246/4 |
| 42 | 9 | 255/4 |
| 43 | 12 | 267/4 |
| 44 | 10 | 277/4 |
| 45 | 9 | 286/5 |
| 46 | 10 | 296/5 |
| 47 | 17 | 313/5 |
| 48 | 8 | 321/6 |
| 49 | 13 | 334/9 |
| 50 | 7 | 341/10 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Deandra Dottin: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nicola Carey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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