South AfricaversusIndia

9 Jul 2024 · T20

MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 10 wickets

South Africa17.1 overs84/10 India10.5 overs88/0 MA Chidambaram Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

31%South Africa69%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,633 vs 1,533 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 30%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (India: 62% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.2: SR Patil to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. India up from 65% to 73%.
4.6: P Vastrakar to M Kapp, M Kapp out. India up from 71% to 78%.
7.4: DB Sharma to T Brits, T Brits out. India up from 75% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa84/10 India88/0

Innings 1

South Africa

84/1017.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Arundhati Reddy · Shreyanka Patil 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Arundhati Reddy · b Shreyanka Patil	9	9	2	0	100.00
Tazmin Britscaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Deepti Sharma 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Deepti Sharma	20	23	3	0	86.96
Marizanne Kappcaught · Shafali Verma · Pooja Vastrakar 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shafali Verma · b Pooja Vastrakar	10	8	2	0	125.00
Anne Boschlbw · Pooja Vastrakar 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Pooja Vastrakar	17	14	2	0	121.43

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Pooja Vastrakar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	0	13	4	4.11	0
Sajeevan Sajana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	0
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	1	4.67	1
Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	1	6.33	1
Radha Yadav1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	3	2.00	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	1	5.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	11	17/0
3	2	19/0
4	8	27/1
5	3	30/2
6	9	39/2
7	3	42/2
8	3	45/3
9	4	49/3
10	8	57/3
11	4	61/5
12	2	63/5
13	3	66/6
14	6	72/6
15	8	80/7
16	4	84/7
17	0	84/9
18	0	84/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.