**Basin Reserve, Wellington**
Photo: PaddyBriggs
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

Northern DistrictsversusCanterbury

1 Feb 2025 · T20

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Canterbury won by 7 wickets

Northern Districts20.0 overs110/9 Canterbury13.1 overs111/3 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 48%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Canterbury: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: KA Jamieson to JF Carter, JF Carter out. Canterbury up from 58% to 69%.
2.2: MJ Henry to KD Clarke, KD Clarke out. Canterbury up from 68% to 78%.
4.2: MJ Henry to RR O'Donnell, RR O'Donnell out. Canterbury up from 88% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts110/9 Canterbury111/3

Innings 1