ZimbabweversusNew Zealand

8 Mar 2026 · ODI

University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 8 wickets

Zimbabwe29.1 overs102/10 New Zealand16.2 overs106/2 University Oval, Dunedin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

28%Zimbabwe72%New Zealand

Why

On results in ODIs so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,495 vs 1,391 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 1 ODIs between these sides, New Zealand won 1 and Zimbabwe won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 25%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (New Zealand: 66% to 100%).

Biggest swings

10.4: MM Penfold to CS Mugeri-Tiripano, CS Mugeri-Tiripano out. New Zealand up from 69% to 78%.
14.3: MM Penfold to B Biza, B Biza out. New Zealand up from 75% to 82%.
14.4: MM Penfold to L Tshuma, L Tshuma out. New Zealand up from 82% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe102/10 New Zealand106/2

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

102/1029.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kelis Ndhlovuretired hurt · Bree Illing 2 fours · 0 sixes	retired hurt	12*	27	2	0	44.44
Modester Mupachikwastumped · Izzy Gaze · Amelia Kerr 4 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Izzy Gaze · b Amelia Kerr	32	51	4	0	62.75
Chipo Mugeribowled · Molly Penfold 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Molly Penfold	4	12	0	0	33.33
B Bizacaught · Izzy Gaze · Molly Penfold 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Izzy Gaze · b Molly Penfold	6	12	0	0	50.00
Loren Tshumacaught · Nensi Patel · Molly Penfold 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nensi Patel · b Molly Penfold	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Bree Illing0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	0	21	0	4.20	1
Rosemary Mair1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	8.0	1	17	0	2.13	4
Molly Penfold1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	3	4.25	6
Amelia Kerr1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	9.1	1	34	7	3.71	3
Nensi Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	0	2.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/0
3	4	9/0
4	4	13/0
5	6	19/0
6	1	20/0
7	5	25/0
8	3	28/0
9	4	32/0
10	2	34/0
11	6	40/1
12	5	45/1
13	2	47/1
14	1	48/1
15	0	48/3
16	6	54/3
17	9	63/3
18	3	66/4
19	3	69/4
20	0	69/5
21	4	73/5
22	1	74/7
23	2	76/7
24	3	79/8
25	2	81/8
26	13	94/8
27	1	95/8
28	2	97/9
29	5	102/9
30	0	102/10

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