Sri LankaversusThailand

25 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 67 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs122/5 Thailand16.2 overs55/10 Sheikh Zayed Stadium Nursery 1, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

61%Sri Lanka39%Thailand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Thailand (1,586 vs 1,538 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 2 and Thailand won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 59%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.5: KDU Prabodhani to N Boochatham, N Boochatham out. Sri Lanka up from 55% to 65%.
2nd inns 7.6: WK Dilhari to N Chantam, N Chantam out. Sri Lanka up from 67% to 75%.
2nd inns 8.1: WGAKK Kulasuriya to N Koncharoenkai, N Koncharoenkai out. Sri Lanka up from 75% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka122/5 Thailand55/10

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

122/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Nattaya Boochatham · Chanida Sutthiruang 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nattaya Boochatham · b Chanida Sutthiruang	13	14	2	0	92.86
Chamari Atapatturun out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, Suleeporn Laomi · T Putthawong 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, Suleeporn Laomi	16	23	2	0	69.57
Hasini Pereralbw · S Chaturongrattana 5 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b S Chaturongrattana	29	32	5	0	90.63
Hansima Karunaratnestumped · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · Onnicha Kamchomphu 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · b Onnicha Kamchomphu	11	11	1

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Chanida Sutthiruang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	1	5.00	0	0
Nattaya Boochatham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	1	0
T Putthawong0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	0	0
Onnicha Kamchomphu0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0	1
S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	1	7.50	0	0
Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	1	6.33	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	3	8/0
3	10	18/0
4	2	20/0
5	4	24/1
6	9	33/1
7	5	38/1
8	2	40/1
9	5	45/2
10	6	51/2
11	5	56/2
12	4	60/3
13	10	70/3
14	4	74/4
15	5	79/5
16	4	83/5
17	5	88/5
18	11	99/5
19	8	107/5
20	15	122/5

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.