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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
17 Dec 2025 · Test
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Zak Crawley · Brydon Carse1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Crawley · b Brydon Carse | 10 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 35.71 |
| Jake Weatheraldcaught · Jamie Smith · Jofra Archer 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Jofra Archer | 18 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Brydon Carse · Jofra Archer2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Jofra Archer | 19 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 47.50 |
 |
| caught · Josh Tongue · b Will Jacks |
| 82 |
| 126 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 65.08 |
 Cameron Greencaught · Brydon Carse · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Jofra Archer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Jamie Smith · Will Jacks8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Will Jacks | 106 | 143 | 8 | 1 | 74.13 |
|---|
 Josh Inglisbowled · Josh Tongue4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 32 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 82.05 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Ollie Pope · Brydon Carse2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Brydon Carse | 13 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 68.42 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcbowled · Jofra Archer9 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jofra Archer | 54 | 75 | 9 | 0 | 72.00 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonlbw · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jofra Archer | 9 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 25.71 |
|---|
 Scott Bolandnot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 21 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 0 · noballs: 7 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.2 | 5 | 53 | 5 | 2.61 | 0 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 0 wides · 6 no-balls | 16.0 | 0 | 89 | 2 | 5.56 | 0 | 6 |
| Josh Tongue1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 1 | 64 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 19.0 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 2.79 | 0 | 1 |
 Will Jacks3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 3 | 105 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-33 (Jake Weatherald, 8.2) · 2-33 (Travis Head, 9.1) · 3-94 (Marnus Labuschagne, 24.1) · 4-94 (Cameron Green, 24.3) · 5-185 (Usman Khawaja, 47.2) · 6-244 (Josh Inglis, 60.5) · 7-271 (Pat Cummins, 65.5) · 8-321 (Alex Carey, 77.2) · 9-348 (Mitchell Starc, 85.2) · 10-371 (Nathan Lyon, 91.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 13 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 33/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 33/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 34/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 37/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 37/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 38/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 15 | 9 | 48/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 52/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 52/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 57/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 62/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 67/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 22 | 10 | 82/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 87/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 94/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 98/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 104/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 108/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 109/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 111/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 116/4 |
| 33 | 12 | 128/4 |
| 34 | 6 | 134/4 |
| 35 | 8 | 142/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 145/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 146/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 149/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 151/4 |
| 40 | 9 | 160/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 165/4 |
| 42 | 2 | 167/4 |
| 43 | 1 | 168/4 |
| 44 | 7 | 175/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 180/4 |
| 46 | 3 | 183/4 |
| 47 | 2 | 185/4 |
| 48 | 0 | 185/5 |
| 49 | 4 | 189/5 |
| 50 | 5 | 194/5 |
| 51 | 0 | 194/5 |
| 52 | 9 | 203/5 |
| 53 | 0 | 203/5 |
| 54 | 8 | 211/5 |
| 55 | 2 | 213/5 |
| 56 | 9 | 222/5 |
| 57 | 4 | 226/5 |
| 58 | 5 | 231/5 |
| 59 | 0 | 231/5 |
| 60 | 7 | 238/5 |
| 61 | 6 | 244/6 |
| 62 | 1 | 245/6 |
| 63 | 5 | 250/6 |
| 64 | 12 | 262/6 |
| 65 | 7 | 269/6 |
| 66 | 2 | 271/7 |
| 67 | 3 | 274/7 |
| 68 | 8 | 282/7 |
| 69 | 2 | 284/7 |
| 70 | 10 | 294/7 |
| 71 | 2 | 296/7 |
| 72 | 6 | 302/7 |
| 73 | 5 | 307/7 |
| 74 | 4 | 311/7 |
| 75 | 4 | 315/7 |
| 76 | 4 | 319/7 |
| 77 | 2 | 321/7 |
| 78 | 0 | 321/8 |
| 79 | 1 | 322/8 |
| 80 | 0 | 322/8 |
| 81 | 0 | 322/8 |
| 82 | 4 | 326/8 |
| 83 | 0 | 326/8 |
| 84 | 8 | 334/8 |
| 85 | 10 | 344/8 |
| 86 | 4 | 348/9 |
| 87 | 8 | 356/9 |
| 88 | 8 | 364/9 |
| 89 | 1 | 365/9 |
| 90 | 5 | 370/9 |
| 91 | 1 | 371/9 |
| 92 | 0 | 371/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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