Melbourne RenegadesversusAdelaide Strikers

2 Jan 2025 · T20

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 5 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs142/9 Adelaide Strikers17.1 overs143/5 Docklands Stadium, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 49%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Adelaide Strikers is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Adelaide Strikers: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.1: B Doggett to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Adelaide Strikers up from 51% to 61%.
4.6: L Pope to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Adelaide Strikers up from 44% to 53%.
14.6: HTRY Thornton to LJ Evans, LJ Evans out. Adelaide Strikers up from 58% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades142/9 Adelaide Strikers143/5

Innings 1