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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A · 2026/27 · Men
6 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Qatar more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Thailand started on 16%; Thailand batted first.
Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (Qatar: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akshaykumar Yadavbowled · Mujeeb Ur Rehman 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mujeeb Ur Rehman | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · Shariq Munir · Mujeeb Ur Rehman 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shariq Munir · b Mujeeb Ur Rehman | 16 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 123.08 |
| Phiriyapong Suanchuaicaught · Zeeshan Haider · Shariq Munir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zeeshan Haider · b Shariq Munir | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Austin Lazarusbowled · Daniel Louis 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Louis | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
| Phanuphong Thongsabowled · Shariq Munir 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shariq Munir | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Mukesh Thakurbowled · Owais Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Owais Ahmed |
| 7 |
| 13 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 53.85 |
| Pattarapol Jirapatananukullbw · Muhammad Asim 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Muhammad Asim | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| Chanchai Pengkumtacaught · Daniel Louis · Owais Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daniel Louis · b Owais Ahmed | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
|---|
| Aruesanan Wichakambowled · Ikramullah Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ikramullah Khan | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| Nopphon Senamontreenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Sarawut Maliwannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Mujeeb Ur Rehman1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Shariq Munir0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Louis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Owais Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Asim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Akshaykumar Yadav, 1.5) · 2-19 (Chaloemwong Chatphaisan, 3.3) · 3-26 (Phiriyapong Suanchuai, 4.1) · 4-32 (Phanuphong Thongsa, 7.0) · 5-48 (Austin Lazarus, 10.4) · 6-50 (Mukesh Thakur, 12.0) · 7-56 (Pattarapol Jirapatananukul, 14.1) · 8-58 (Chanchai Pengkumta, 15.5) · 9-73 (Aruesanan Wichakam, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 12 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 25/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 28/3 |
| 6 | 0 | 28/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 32/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 34/4 |
| 9 | 5 | 39/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 42/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 49/5 |
| 12 | 1 | 50/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 53/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 56/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 57/7 |
| 16 | 1 | 58/8 |
| 17 | 4 | 62/8 |
| 18 | 2 | 64/8 |
| 19 | 8 | 72/8 |
| 20 | 4 | 76/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.