MaltaversusGibraltar

7 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Malta won by 65 runs

Malta20.0 overs227/8 Gibraltar20.0 overs162/6 Marsa Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malta more likely to win

59%Malta41%Gibraltar

Why

In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Malta won 6 and Gibraltar won 2
Malta are playing at home in Malta
On results in T20 internationals so far, Gibraltar rate stronger than Malta (1,425 vs 1,389 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malta started on 57%; Malta batted first.

Malta’s chance of winning (%) · Gibraltar is the rest

Malta's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Gibraltar: 0% to 43%).

Biggest swings

0.1: K Nestor to Mehboob Ali, six by Mehboob Ali. Malta up from 57% to 63%.
0.5: K Nestor to Mehboob Ali, Mehboob Ali out. Gibraltar up from 29% to 40%.
2nd inns 7.1: P Pushparajan to PA Raikes, PA Raikes out. Malta up from 80% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malta227/8 Gibraltar162/6

Innings 1

Malta

227/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malta batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mehboob Alicaught · KJ Ferrary · K Nestor 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · KJ Ferrary · b K Nestor	16	5	1	2	320.00
Zeeshan Khanstumped · C Pyle · S Bodha 4 fours · 3 sixes	stumped · C Pyle · b S Bodha	53	31	4	3	170.97
P Pushparajancaught and bowled · IDM Latin 5 fours · 5 sixes	caught and bowled · b IDM Latin	73	34	5	5	214.71
Jaspal Singhstumped · C Pyle · IDM Latin 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · C Pyle · b IDM Latin	6	6	1	0	100.00
Flynn Zahracaught · L Bruce · IDM Latin 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · L Bruce · b IDM Latin	16	10	1	1	160.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
K Nestor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	1	0
A Reyes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	0	0
KJ Ferrary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	17	0	17.00	0	0
Joe Wilson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	0	0
S Bodha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	35	1	11.67	0	0
IDM Latin0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	41	4	10.25	3	1
L Bruce0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	1	11.00	0	0
K Mirpuri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	17	17/1
2	10	27/1
3	11	38/1
4	10	48/1
5	5	53/1
6	17	70/1
7	9	79/1
8	13	92/1
9	15	107/1
10	15	122/1
11	8	130/2
12	15	145/3
13	12	157/3
14	7	164/4
15	14	178/4
16	5	183/6
17	7	190/7
18	16	206/7
19	13	219/7
20	8	227/8

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