Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusTrinbago Knight Riders

20 Aug 2025 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 8 runs

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs167/6 Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs159/6 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 42%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Trinbago Knight Riders is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 21% to 99% during the match (Trinbago Knight Riders: 2% to 79%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: OC McCoy to AD Hales, AD Hales out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 29% to 41%.
2nd inns 4.5: OC McCoy to C Munro, C Munro out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 41% to 54%.
2nd inns 9.1: RRS Cornwall to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 59% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons167/6 Trinbago Knight Riders159/6

Innings 1