Washington FreedomversusSan Francisco Unicorns

28 Jun 2025 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 12 runs

Washington Freedom20.0 overs169/6 San Francisco Unicorns20.0 overs157/9 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 48%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · San Francisco Unicorns is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 12% to 100% during the match (San Francisco Unicorns: 0% to 88%).

Biggest swings

0.1: XC Bartlett to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 51% to 67%.
2nd inns 12.4: MJ Owen to R Shepherd, R Shepherd out. Washington Freedom up from 35% to 57%.
2nd inns 14.1: J Edwards to XC Bartlett, XC Bartlett out. Washington Freedom up from 57% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom169/6 San Francisco Unicorns157/9

Innings 1