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Ireland tour of United Arab Emirates · 2025/26 · Men
23 Jan 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 60%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (Ireland: 24% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Moscacaught · George Dockrell · Barry McCarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Dockrell · b Barry McCarthy | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| AJ Moscalbw · Matthew Humphreys 4 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Matthew Humphreys | 35 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 159.09 |
| Jon-Jon Smutsbowled · Barry McCarthy 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Barry McCarthy | 18 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 150.00 |
 Wayne Madsencaught · Harry Tector · Gareth Delany1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Tector · b Gareth Delany | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Harry Manenticaught · George Dockrell · Gareth Delany 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Dockrell · b Gareth Delany |
| 20 |
| 19 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 105.26 |
 Grant Stewartbowled · Matthew Humphreys0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Humphreys | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gian-Piero Meadecaught · Ross Adair · Mark Adair 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ross Adair · b Mark Adair | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Marcus Campopianocaught · Lorcan Tucker · Matthew Humphreys 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Matthew Humphreys | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Jaspreet Singhbowled · Matthew Humphreys 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Humphreys | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| CJPF Kalugamagecaught · Barry McCarthy · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Barry McCarthy · b Mark Adair | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Thomas Dracanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 9.47 | 2 | 1 |
| Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Little0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 13.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Gareth Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
 George Dockrell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-19 (J Mosca, 2.2) · 2-55 (Jon-Jon Smuts, 5.4) · 3-59 (AJ Mosca, 6.4) · 4-79 (Wayne Madsen, 9.5) · 5-87 (Grant Stewart, 11.4) · 6-87 (Harry Manenti, 12.3) · 7-101 (Marcus Campopiano, 14.2) · 8-101 (Jaspreet Singh, 14.3) · 9-111 (Gian-Piero Meade, 16.2) · 10-118 (CJPF Kalugamage, 18.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 14 | 34/1 |
| 5 | 16 | 50/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 57/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 68/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 74/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 79/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 84/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 87/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 90/6 |
| 14 | 11 | 101/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 105/8 |
| 16 | 4 | 109/8 |
| 17 | 3 | 112/9 |
| 18 | 6 | 118/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 118/10 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Wayne Madsen: Parklands cobbler · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
