**Seddon Park, Hamilton**
Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

Northern DistrictsversusCanterbury

8 Jan 2026 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 87 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs240/4 Canterbury20.0 overs153/9 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 45%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Canterbury: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

1.2: SB Davey to BR Hampton, six by BR Hampton. Northern Districts up from 46% to 52%.
2.5: FW Sheat to BR Hampton, six by BR Hampton. Northern Districts up from 55% to 60%.
2.6: FW Sheat to BR Hampton, six by BR Hampton. Northern Districts up from 60% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts240/4 Canterbury153/9

Innings 1