AustraliaversusSouth Africa

10 Aug 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Australia won by 17 runs

Australia20.0 overs178/10 South Africa20.0 overs161/9 Marrara Cricket Ground, Darwin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

85%Australia15%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,743 vs 1,569 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and South Africa won 2
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 83%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

6.4: KT Maphaka to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. South Africa up from 20% to 38%.
7.4: S Muthusamy to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. South Africa up from 36% to 53%.
2nd inns 14.3: JR Hazlewood to T Stubbs, T Stubbs out. Australia up from 56% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia178/10 South Africa161/9

Innings 1

Australia

178/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mitchell Marshcaught · Kwena Maphaka · Kagiso Rabada 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Kwena Maphaka · b Kagiso Rabada	13	7	1	1	185.71
Travis Headcaught · Kwena Maphaka · Kagiso Rabada 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kwena Maphaka · b Kagiso Rabada	2	7	0	0	28.57
Josh Ingliscaught · Senuran Muthusamy · George Linde 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Senuran Muthusamy · b George Linde	0	1	0	0	0.00
Cameron Green

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	1	11.33	1	0
Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	2	1
George Linde0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	5	0
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	44	0	14.67	0	1
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	4	5.00	1	0
Senuran Muthusamy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	1	15/1
3	15	30/2
4	12	42/3
5	18	60/3
6	11	71/4
7	4	75/5
8	1	76/6
9	11	87/6
10	1	88/6
11	11	99/6
12	9	108/6
13	14	122/6
14	10	132/6
15	4	136/7
16	13	149/7
17	9	158/7
18	6	164/7
19	2	166/9
20	12	178/10

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