IndonesiaversusThailand

20 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 6 wickets

Indonesia20.0 overs86/10 Thailand13.3 overs87/4 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

23%Indonesia77%Thailand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Indonesia (1,460 vs 1,294 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 4 and Indonesia won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 22%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (Thailand: 77% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: J Coetzee to Anjar Tadarus, Anjar Tadarus out. Thailand up from 78% to 84%.
2.6: J Coetzee to F Banunaek, F Banunaek out. Thailand up from 84% to 90%.
6.4: N Senamontree to GA Priandana, GA Priandana out. Thailand up from 92% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia86/10 Thailand87/4

Innings 1

Indonesia

86/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Indonesia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ahmad Ramdonicaught · Kamron Senamontree · A Kalasi 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Kamron Senamontree · b A Kalasi	21	43	1	1	48.84
Anjar Tadaruscaught · Chanchai Pengkumta · Jandre Coetzee 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chanchai Pengkumta · b Jandre Coetzee	8	11	1	0	72.73
F Banunaeklbw · Jandre Coetzee 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Jandre Coetzee	0	1	0	0	0.00
Gede Priandanarun out · Akshaykumar Yadav, Jandre Coetzee · Nopphon Senamontree 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Akshaykumar Yadav, Jandre Coetzee	5	13	1	0	38.46
J Dzulfikarlbw · Sarawut Maliwan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sarawut Maliwan	2	8	0	0	25.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jandre Coetzee0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	5	3.33	2
Kamron Senamontree1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	17	0	5.67	0
Nopphon Senamontree2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	10	0	2.50	0
Chanchai Pengkumta0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	1	4.00	4
Sarawut Maliwan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	1	5.50	1
A Kalasi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	6	8/0
3	4	12/2
4	0	12/2
5	4	16/2
6	2	18/2
7	0	18/3
8	6	24/3
9	0	24/3
10	2	26/4
11	6	32/4
12	10	42/4
13	3	45/4
14	3	48/5
15	3	51/5
16	6	57/5
17	1	58/7
18	11	69/7
19	13	82/7
20	4	86/10

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