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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A · 2026/27 · Men
5 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bhutan started on 80%; Bhutan batted first.
Bhutan's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tshering Tashibowled · Kaung Htet Kyaw 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaung Htet Kyaw | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Tenjin Rabgeycaught · Ye Naing Tun · Kaung Htet Kyaw 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ye Naing Tun · b Kaung Htet Kyaw | 18 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 62.07 |
| Sonam Chophelhit wicket · Khin Aye 1 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Khin Aye | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 107.14 |
| Ranjung Mikyo Dorjibowled · Paing Danu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Paing Danu | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Namgang Chejaycaught · Khin Aye · Paing Danu 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Khin Aye · b Paing Danu | 22 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 84.62 |
| not out |
| 40* |
| 27 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 148.15 |
| Tashi Dorjibowled · Ko Ko Lin Thu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ko Ko Lin Thu | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Gakul Ghalleybowled · Paing Danu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Paing Danu | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Anand Mongarrun out · Ye Naing Tun · Paing Danu 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ye Naing Tun | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 15 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sai Hla Htwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaung Htet Kyaw0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Paing Danu0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 7 | 1 |
| Khin Aye0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Ko Ko Lin Thu0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 5 | 0 |
1-15 (Tshering Tashi, 5.1) · 2-30 (Tenjin Rabgey, 7.5) · 3-31 (Ranjung Mikyo Dorji, 8.1) · 4-52 (Sonam Chophel, 12.0) · 5-88 (Namgang Chejay, 16.0) · 6-113 (Tashi Dorji, 18.3) · 7-118 (Gakul Ghalley, 19.5) · 8-119 (Anand Mongar, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 32/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 35/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 46/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 52/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 61/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 69/4 |
| 15 | 11 | 80/4 |
| 16 | 8 | 88/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 93/5 |
| 18 | 13 | 106/5 |
| 19 | 10 | 116/6 |
| 20 | 3 | 119/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.