JapanversusCook Islands

Japan more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Japan rate stronger than Cook Islands (1,567 vs 1,420 on our results rating)
• In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Japan won 3 and Cook Islands won 0
• Japan are playing at home in Japan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Japan started on 82%; Japan batted first.

Japan's chances ranged from 9% to 96% during the match (Cook Islands: 4% to 91%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 7.5: I Takahashi to L Grace, L Grace out. Japan up from 57% to 83%.
2. 2nd inns 19.2: Abdul Samad to OE Taylor, four by OE Taylor. Cook Islands up from 58% to 89%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: Abdul Samad to T Parima, four by T Parima. Cook Islands up from 76% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.