VanuatuversusCook Islands

21 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Cook Islands won by 7 wickets

Vanuatu20.0 overs125/9 Cook Islands16.2 overs127/3 Faleata Oval No 2, Apia ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%Vanuatu50%Cook Islands

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Cook Islands won 2 and Vanuatu won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Vanuatu rate stronger than Cook Islands (1,374 vs 1,350 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Vanuatu started on 47%; Vanuatu batted first.

Vanuatu’s chance of winning (%) · Cook Islands is the rest

Vanuatu's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (Cook Islands: 27% to 100%).

Biggest swings

10.5: OE Taylor to J Rasu, J Rasu out. Cook Islands up from 49% to 57%.
11.4: JL Tutty to W Wotu, W Wotu out. Cook Islands up from 57% to 67%.
13.6: AJA Samuels to A Mansale, A Mansale out. Cook Islands up from 59% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Vanuatu125/9 Cook Islands127/3

Innings 1

Vanuatu

125/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Vanuatu batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nalin Nipikocaught · Ma'ava Ave · OE Taylor 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Ma'ava Ave · b OE Taylor	38	31	2	2	122.58
Clement Tommycaught · HB Dickson · L Denny 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · HB Dickson · b L Denny	27	25	1	2	108.00
Andrew Mansalecaught · Ma'ava Ave · AJA Samuels 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ma'ava Ave · b AJA Samuels	15	17	1	0	88.24
Ronald Taribowled · OE Taylor 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b OE Taylor	0	1	0	0	0.00
Joshua Rasucaught · Ma'ava Ave · OE Taylor 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ma'ava Ave · b OE Taylor	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
C Dickson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	0	6.00	0	0
JL Tutty0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	1	3.00	5	0
AJA Samuels0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	35	1	8.75	1	1
L Denny0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	37	2	9.25	3	0
OE Taylor1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	5	4.25	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	3	7/0
3	13	20/0
4	16	36/0
5	8	44/0
6	8	52/0
7	9	61/0
8	6	67/0
9	5	72/1
10	4	76/1
11	0	76/4
12	4	80/5
13	3	83/5
14	12	95/6
15	7	102/7
16	1	103/7
17	2	105/7
18	8	113/7
19	6	119/9
20	6	125/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.