Sri LankaversusBangladesh

7 Jun 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 2 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs124/9 Bangladesh19.0 overs125/8 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%Sri Lanka53%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,580 vs 1,534 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 44%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 2% to 60% during the match (Bangladesh: 40% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.2: N Thushara to Nazmul Hossain Shanto, Nazmul Hossain Shanto out. Sri Lanka up from 24% to 38%.
2nd inns 17.4: N Thushara to Taskin Ahmed, Taskin Ahmed out. Sri Lanka up from 12% to 28%.
2nd inns 18.1: MD Shanaka to Mahmudullah, six by Mahmudullah. Bangladesh up from 85% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka124/9 Bangladesh125/8

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

124/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankacaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Mustafizur Rahman 7 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Mustafizur Rahman	47	28	7	1	167.86
Kusal Mendisbowled · Taskin Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Taskin Ahmed	10	8	2	0	125.00
Kamindu Mendiscaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Mustafizur Rahman	4	5	1	0	80.00
Dhananjaya de Silvastumped · Litton Das · Rishad Hossain 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Litton Das · b Rishad Hossain	21	26	1	0	80.77
Charith Asalankacaught · Shakib Al Hasan · Rishad Hossain 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shakib Al Hasan · b Rishad Hossain	19

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Shakib Al Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	0	10.00	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	3	4.25	1
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	3	5.50	0
Mahmudullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	4	0	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	8	13/0
3	12	25/1
4	7	32/1
5	16	48/1
6	5	53/2
7	4	57/2
8	7	64/2
9	6	70/3
10	4	74/3
11	9	83/3
12	6	89/3
13	6	95/3
14	5	100/3
15	3	103/5
16	6	109/5
17	3	112/6
18	3	115/7
19	2	117/8
20	7	124/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.