NorthamptonshireversusSomerset

10 Jul 2026 · T20

The County Ground, Taunton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Somerset won by 7 wickets

Northamptonshire20.0 overs162/8 Somerset15.0 overs164/3 The County Ground, Taunton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 47%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Somerset is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (Somerset: 45% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.4: JT Ball to CA Lynn, CA Lynn out. Somerset up from 48% to 60%.
4.4: C Overton to R Vasconcelos, R Vasconcelos out. Somerset up from 59% to 69%.
9.1: LP Goldsworthy to NA McSweeney, NA McSweeney out. Somerset up from 63% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire162/8 Somerset164/3

Innings 1