PakistanversusNew Zealand

16 Mar 2025 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 9 wickets

Pakistan18.4 overs91/10 New Zealand10.1 overs92/1 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

22%Pakistan78%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,610 vs 1,488 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and Pakistan won 3
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 20%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 21% during the match (New Zealand: 80% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: KA Jamieson to Mohammad Haris, Mohammad Haris out. New Zealand up from 82% to 88%.
1.2: JA Duffy to Hassan Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz out. New Zealand up from 89% to 93%.
2.2: KA Jamieson to Irfan Khan, Irfan Khan out. New Zealand up from 93% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan91/10 New Zealand92/1

Innings 1

Pakistan

91/1018.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Hariscaught · Mitchell Hay · Kyle Jamieson 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Hay · b Kyle Jamieson	0	6	0	0	0.00
Hassan Nawazcaught · Kyle Jamieson · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kyle Jamieson · b Jacob Duffy	0	2	0	0	0.00
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Tim Seifert · Ish Sodhi 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tim Seifert · b Ish Sodhi	18	20	2	0	90.00
Irfan Khancaught · Mitchell Hay · Kyle Jamieson 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Hay · b Kyle Jamieson	1	6	0	0	16.67
Shadab Khancaught · Tim Robinson · Kyle Jamieson 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kyle Jamieson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	8	3	2.00	0
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	0	14	4	3.82	2
Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	1
Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	28	0	7.00	3
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	2	6.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	1	1/2
3	2	3/3
4	6	9/3
5	2	11/4
6	3	14/4
7	2	16/4
8	5	21/4
9	7	28/4
10	14	42/4
11	15	57/4
12	2	59/5
13	5	64/6
14	8	72/6
15	5	77/6
16	3	80/7
17	5	85/7
18	4	89/8
19	2	91/10

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