**Newlands, Cape Town**
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SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusMI Cape Town

26 Dec 2025 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 15 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs232/5 MI Cape Town20.0 overs217/7 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 38%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (MI Cape Town: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.6: E Bosch to JF Smith, JF Smith out. Durban's Super Giants up from 61% to 73%.
2nd inns 17.5: D Wiese to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Durban's Super Giants up from 70% to 82%.
2nd inns 18.3: KT Maphaka to RD Rickelton, six by RD Rickelton. MI Cape Town up from 16% to 29%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Durban's Super Giants232/5 MI Cape Town217/7

Innings 1